{
  "id": "deepstate-daily-tempo",
  "title": "Russia's advance slowed to about a third of its 2025 pace",
  "description": "Day-by-day change in the Russian-occupied area, smoothed with a 7-day rolling average. In 2025, Russia advanced an average of 12 km² per day. In the first half of 2026, the average tempo fell to 4.4 km² per day.",
  "unit": "square kilometres per day (km²/day)",
  "date_range": "Rolling last 12 months",
  "topic": "territory",
  "license": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "license_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "page_url": "https://visua.no/en/charts/deepstate-daily-tempo/",
  "dataset_url": "https://visua.no/data/deepstate-daily-tempo.csv",
  "meta_url": "https://visua.no/data/deepstate-daily-tempo.meta.json",
  "datawrapper_id": "Q72Zq",
  "chart_png_url": "https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Q72Zq/full.png",
  "supabase_view": "chart_deepstate_daily_advance_tempo",
  "cadence": "Daily, ~06:00 UTC",
  "last_updated": "2026-07-28",
  "key_points": [
    "The chart shows daily territory net gains (positive = Russia gained, negative = Ukraine gained) and a corresponding 7-day average for the last 12 months based on data from <a href=\"https://visua.no/en/charts/deepstate-daily-tempo/#chp3-source\">Deepstate Map</a>.",
    "As a net figure, it can still hide territory moving both ways within the same month. For a breakdown by side, check <a href=\"https://visua.no/en/charts/deepstate-gross-flows/\">this chart</a>.",
    "Russia's daily pace has fallen from 12 km² a day in 2025 to 4.4 km² a day for the full six months of 2026.",
    "Scope is territory inside Ukraine's internationally recognised borders. Crimea and the pre-2022 LPR/DPR footprint are excluded so the series isolates post-2022 movement; Ukraine's 2024 Kursk incursion (Ukrainian-held Russian territory) is a separate ledger and is excluded entirely."
  ],
  "source": {
    "key": "deepstate",
    "name": "DeepState Map",
    "short_name": "DeepState",
    "url": "deepstatemap.live",
    "description": "What it shows\nDeepState is a Ukrainian OSINT project publishing an interactive map of the Russo-Ukrainian war, updated daily. The map distinguishes occupied, liberated, and contested (grey-zone) territory.\n\nWhat it's based on\nThe territorial control depicted on the map is based on geolocated footage, open-source reports, community submissions, and direct communication with Ukrainian units.\n\nWho's behind it\nIt is created and maintained by NGO DeepstateUA, which has employees and a volunteer team of over 100 people. The founders of the project are Roman Pohorilyi and Ruslan Mykula. \n\nAlignment to the sides of the war\nThroughout the full-scale war, DeepState positions itself as a fact-based project. The map has partnerships with the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence and General Staff, and the project also has a closed map solution for the Ukrainian defence forces. DeepState has publicly stated that during Ukrainian offensive operations, it delays map updates for operational-security reasons. Yet it has contradicted the official position of the General Staff and spoken out publicly about Russian advances that the General Staff hadn't communicated prior.\n\nGeneral data risks and usefulness\nThe map data — like any source heavily based on OSINT — tends to be a lagging indicator.",
    "coverage": "April 2022 — present",
    "cadence": "Continuous · Snapshotted daily ~06:00 UTC",
    "citation": "DeepState. (2026). DeepState Map. https://deepstatemap.live.",
    "shared_points": []
  },
  "processing": [
    {
      "n": "01",
      "title": "Snapshot",
      "desc": "Read DeepState’s own published area figures from their public API once a day, ~06:00 UTC. Each snapshot is stored with its capture time in the database so changes can be replayed."
    },
    {
      "n": "02",
      "title": "Clean",
      "desc": "Normalise the raw figures into a tidy daily table: key each row by snapshot date and capture time, and add the fixed pre-2022 occupied baseline to express total Russian-controlled area."
    },
    {
      "n": "03",
      "title": "Aggregate",
      "desc": "Derive the chart’s metric by differencing consecutive snapshots — month-end minus the previous month-end for the monthly charts, or snapshot-over-snapshot smoothed with a 7-day rolling average for the daily tempo. No geometry is involved; the input is DeepState’s scalar area number."
    },
    {
      "n": "04",
      "title": "Round & publish",
      "desc": "Round to a sensible precision, write a one-row-per-period view, and refresh the Datawrapper chart."
    }
  ],
  "data_dictionary": [
    {
      "name": "date",
      "type": "date",
      "unit": "ISO 8601 (YYYY-MM-DD)",
      "desc": "Date of the daily snapshot. One row per day that has a usable snapshot; gaps are absent rows, never interpolated. Window is the last 12 months."
    },
    {
      "name": "daily_change_km2",
      "type": "number",
      "unit": "km²",
      "desc": "Raw change in the Russian-occupied area versus the previous snapshot."
    },
    {
      "name": "avg_7d_km2",
      "type": "number",
      "unit": "km²",
      "desc": "The bold line: mean of daily_change_km2 over the trailing 7 calendar days. Computed over the full history, then windowed to 12 months."
    }
  ],
  "citation": {
    "in_text": "P. Krasnomovets (2026)",
    "full": "P. Krasnomovets (2026). \"Russia's advance slowed to about a third of its 2025 pace.\" Processed from DeepState Map. Retrieved from https://visua.no/en/charts/deepstate-daily-tempo/",
    "bibtex": "@misc{krasnomovets2026deepstatedailytempo,\n  author = {Krasnomovets, P.},\n  title  = {Russia's advance slowed to about a third of its 2025 pace},\n  year   = {2026},\n  source = {DeepState Map},\n  url    = {https://visua.no/en/charts/deepstate-daily-tempo/}\n}"
  },
  "contact": "pavlo@visua.no",
  "issues_url": "https://github.com/krasnomovets/visua-pipeline/issues"
}